Expectations
Election Night 2022
The election of 2022 will be another fight between those who want Democracy to remain versus those hoping for a different form of governance, one that is likely to unravel our Democratic system. We can expect several Republicans to declare victory before the votes are counted.
Kari Lake is likely to declare victory immediately after the polls have closed in Arizona; she has argued without merit that the election of 2020 was stolen from the disgraced former leader of the free world.
I expect the same to occur in my home state of Pennsylvania, where Doug Mastriano is almost certain to lose the election in the keystone state. He will likely claim victory and then attempt to sue the state when the mail-in ballots are being counted. Many states do not allow mail-in ballots to be counted before election day, so voters must wait for the election results.
Americans are not used to waiting for anything, meaning conspiracy theories will fly while waiting, and in our polarized world, the loudest voices get the most oxygen.
The voters likely won’t know who controls the Senate until several days after the election; even if the forecasts are wrong and Georgia does not go to the runoff election, the votes in Pennsylvania will not be counted until after election day. If Pennsylvania holds the key to who controls the Senate, the voters will not know who controls the Senate until all of the votes are counted.
If Georgia determines control of the Senate and it goes to a runoff, voters will not know who controls the Senate until after the runoff occurs.
It is worth mentioning that while Republicans will take a victory lap on election day, the party that typically controls the White House loses in the midterm elections. What the Republicans do with their newfound power will matter, they will overstep, and President Biden will be re-elected if he chooses to seek re-election. I doubt McCarthy will be the speaker, or if he does, it will be because of a deal he brokers with Marjorie Taylor Green and Lauren Boebert, meaning deals with the devil.